- Gulf oil shipments climbed to 18.4 million barrels per day, according to the IEA.
- Oil supplies increased by 3 million barrels per day in September, followed by a further rise of 2.3 million barrels per day in October.
- Diesel prices reached $180 per barrel in October, marking a 77% increase compared with pre-war levels.
The International Energy Agency said on Friday that global oil supplies are likely to surpass demand in the fourth quarter, following a rise in Gulf exports that pushed the market into surplus in October for the first time since the Iran war began.
Despite continued attacks on tankers attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, oil shipments from the Gulf climbed to 18.4 million barrels per day (mb/d), according to the Paris-based agency’s monthly report. However, this volume remained 26% below pre-war levels.
“The oil market is showing tentative signs of rebalancing, with global oil supplies surpassing demand for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran,” the IEA said.
Oil prices have dropped considerably in recent weeks as an increasing number of vessels have resumed the risky journey through the Strait of Hormuz under US naval protection.
Iran effectively blocked the strategically important waterway during the initial months of the war, which was launched by the United States and Israel in late February.
According to the IEA, this development contributed to a rise in global oil supplies of three million barrels per day in September, followed by an additional increase of 2.3 million barrels per day in October.
However, worldwide oil demand is projected to decline by 2.7 million barrels per day over the course of this year, as prices remain significantly higher than pre-war levels and “accelerate electrification and fuel efficiencies across the global car fleet”.
Diesel prices have been particularly affected, reaching approximately $180 per barrel in October, about 77% above pre-war rates. The increase came as Iran targeted refineries in neighbouring Gulf states, accusing them of supporting US military strikes.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and other energy facilities are further affecting diesel supplies in international markets.
“The severe tightness in product supply, especially for diesel, remains the overriding concern of the broader market and consumers,” the IEA said.
